South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea1c78f9bd25f3782c271138cd2e1472a3bd8bee2dd83255bb0715a7fd3a05d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d95…fe91backed Over | 20c | 2,396$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.86 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 49c | 1,985$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.31 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 1,652$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.35 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 937.73$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.84 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 9c | 491.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…0a9bbacked Over | 61c | 467.06$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.8 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 43c | 424.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.15 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 51c | 407$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.43 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 51c | 398.52$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.97 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 62c | 322.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Over | 55c | 321.11$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.33 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 65c | 309.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 71c | 283.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 70c | 278.97$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.28 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 28c | 265.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.04 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…a29bbacked Over | 66c | 261.38$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.26 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed Over | 5c | 217.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 80c | 160.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 44c | 154.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 80c | 143.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…4078backed Under | 66c | 130.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 37c | 106.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 40c | 106.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…0c75backed Over | 44c | 104.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Under | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 41c | 82.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0563…f41cbacked Over | 19c | 81.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Over | 24c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 71.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 16c | 64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…1e19backed Over | 50c | 63.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 70c | 58.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 32c | 58.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 57.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Over | 70c | 57.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 29c | 54.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 59c | 51.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 28c | 38.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 57c | 36.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 46c | 32.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Over | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 67c | 16.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.