South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda930bde5e394ec9fa2ea1b8e5d7873724ff8df9736470ded8431598b336fcb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 40c | 2,958$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.26 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 1,946$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.92 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 60c | 1,933$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.27 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d95…fe91backed Over | 63c | 1,499$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.86 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 57c | 1,205$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.31 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Over | 64c | 911.72$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.3 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 26c | 780.19$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Under | 42c | 734.14$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.26 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 63c | 512.11$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.12 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 60c | 476.95$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.69 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 30c | 466$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.85 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 47c | 464.93$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.93 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Under | 39c | 432.87$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.82 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 31c | 275.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 248.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 245.26$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 60c | 224$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Under | 53c | 221.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 214.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 209.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 60c | 208$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 50c | 164.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80f…34a9backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 133.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…917ebacked Under | 48c | 128.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 117$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 16c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 72.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 40c | 68.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 60c | 62.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 33c | 57.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 47c | 53.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 52.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Over | 61c | 50.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 47.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 72c | 40.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…1e19backed Over | 59c | 38.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 43c | 29.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.