Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Anna Bondar vs Hanyu Guo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac4111dd392bf43fe461e190a1763c050d41b161238f57080257d21b2a866d4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bondarof Bondar, Guo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bondar | 52c | 8,409$4,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,053 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Guo | 47c | 6,951$3,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,241.72 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Bondar | 44c | 3,280$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.48 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -16.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Bondar | 58c | 2,388$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Guo | 56c | 2,147$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.87 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Guo | 38c | 1,282$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.63 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Guo | 41c | 1,100$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bondar | 55c | 693.22$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.27 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Bondar | 72c | 655.66$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Bondar | 46c | 626.45$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.45 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Guo | 41c | 605.19$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.13 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Guo | 52c | 570.41$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.05 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Guo | 53c | 550$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Guo | 52c | 524.8$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.78 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Guo | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Guo | 49c | 449.6$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.43 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked Bondar | 75c | 443$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bondar | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Guo | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…5101backed Guo | 45c | 377.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bondar | 58c | 304.51$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Bondar | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Guo | 56c | 222$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Bondar | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Guo | 43c | 170.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…56fdbacked Guo | 71c | 140.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Bondar | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Guo | 28c | 102.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Guo | 54c | 85.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Guo | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Guo | 46c | 78.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Guo | 43c | 73.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…df17backed Guo | 61c | 72.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Bondar | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Bondar | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Bondar | 55c | 49.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Bondar | 48c | 47.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…c26dbacked Guo | 32c | 44.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Guo | 52c | 40.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Guo | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Guo | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Guo | 70c | 14.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.