Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac4b59983559d2515f0d86e84d405320d7a8bb5989bcc124197ef8c1363a8f75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 1,672$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 599.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 433.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 6c | 431$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 377.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 19c | 342.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 303.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 7c | 277.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 265.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 7c | 241.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 9c | 236.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 233.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 15c | 202.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 17c | 191.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 190.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 11c | 160.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 152.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9d…bf8dbacked Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed Yes | 8c | 141$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 119.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 21c | 117.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…9096backed Yes | 13c | 117.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 18c | 108.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 16c | 103.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 16c | 85.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…d282backed No | 80c | 57.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 43.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.