TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x077c…8b1fbacked No4c1,644$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No7c1,488$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.41,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…36a2backed No69c579$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-81.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes37c474.36$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.6211438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c447.1$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.295,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No15c434.26$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.64,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No53c411.75$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.132,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No15c409.35$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.446,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes79c406.58$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9440265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No5c399.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No4c321.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5280560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes65c315.76$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.063,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes30c315.7$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.6542820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes29c297.19$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.211,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes38c272.35$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.6521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c268.97$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.436,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5bc…8853backed Yes38c265.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.12030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c250.45$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.414,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c233$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.164,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c199.88$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c189.07$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.51,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes35c181.88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.082,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes70c170.4$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.121,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No22c169.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes72c162.18$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3814645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No16c159.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.171,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No14c159.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1686847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes31c158.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.0322350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x418a…64c0backed Yes35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.55343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes36c148.56$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.316634.8%23 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa77e…aea7backed No62c139.97$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.982556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes35c130$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c123.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c122.98$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.124,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c121.9$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.687,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No52c121.66$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6816550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No17c120.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.481,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes30c113.82$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.767336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c112.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.493,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d43…d78abacked Yes35c110.09$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c109.97$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.643,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c108.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes29c108.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2928742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes28c106.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.322920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c105$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6217926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed Yes76c99.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes51c99.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.088636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes35c95.54$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.110434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes31c92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes33c90$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.917831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No19c89.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes79c88$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.792,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No73c82.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.81,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb66e…7fe2backed Yes37c81.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.081346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No66c77.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked No36c74.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.527231.9%23 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No26c74.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.048,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.612,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes41c65.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes36c64.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.593135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes34c62.62$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.31,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes33c60.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.262137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.243,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes72c59.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c41…500dbacked Yes28c58.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.367627.6%21 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No44c56.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.954,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c55.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.573,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cce…71adbacked Yes70c52.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.853540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes33c50.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.12,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No36c50.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.32,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes71c50.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.741,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad2…7e40backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.871421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x612a…bde5backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0c…a963backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3615334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0840…cb52backed Yes37c49.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No61c49.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.543663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes26c49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.124,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes31c48.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3925536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes45c48.06$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.62,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b2c…f9f2backed Yes42c47.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c47.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.951,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No63c47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes38c45.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0642148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x658e…2914backed No69c45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.052955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.652,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No69c41.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No66c41.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4442160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.88247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No69c39.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1243848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No60c39.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4142547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No60c39.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4129351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked No60c39.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.416243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2809…5f75backed No70c38.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.761675%12 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No65c36.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.