Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c7b430c019b28e9cf7009179bcb5078f4776ed632812af8629f81721016f305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 3,935$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,805$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,553$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.6 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 11c | 3,218$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.3 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 950$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.49 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 10c | 704.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 613.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 19c | 500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 12c | 436.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 11c | 298.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 270.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 23c | 268.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 18c | 250.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 245.85$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 244.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 242.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 16c | 227.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 6c | 224.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 14c | 221.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 16c | 217.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 214.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 15c | 205.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 14c | 202.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 8c | 201.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 200.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 197.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…8acdbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 12c | 162.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 14c | 158.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d43…d78abacked Yes | 13c | 158.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 149.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 147.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…9096backed Yes | 16c | 141.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 9c | 140.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 13c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 127.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 20c | 126.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 10c | 120.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23af…e576backed Yes | 24c | 120.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 111.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 16c | 104.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed Yes | 10c | 104.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 100.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 12c | 90.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 78c | 81.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 15c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 20c | 77.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 23c | 60.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 24c | 59.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…d282backed No | 77c | 49.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…87b1backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…1352backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.