MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac6a97c7f32f1f2ba1ea1d9bdde98a965bd7dcb57537dccd2ecd530684a5ed93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,202 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 20c | 5,959$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…9742backed New York Mets | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked New York Mets | 57c | 3,321$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.05 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 2,477$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 2,390$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.48 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 2,271$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.42 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 1,951$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.07 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New York Mets | 57c | 1,212$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.6 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 77c | 1,207$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked New York Mets | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked New York Mets | 58c | 975.99$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.86 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 26c | 968.32$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.02 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 931.04$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.16 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 889.17$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 877.24$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.8 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 767.68$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked New York Mets | 15c | 627.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed New York Mets | 15c | 572.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed New York Mets | 59c | 408.2$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.93 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 378$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.51 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed New York Mets | 60c | 333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed New York Mets | 55c | 307.67$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.22 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed New York Mets | 58c | 288.6$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.39 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked New York Mets | 57c | 251.33$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc131…10acbacked New York Mets | 57c | 250.15$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Washington Nationals | 67c | 249$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 237$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked New York Mets | 49c | 228.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 213.28$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked New York Mets | 54c | 205.75$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 160$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed New York Mets | 15c | 155.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed New York Mets | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Washington Nationals | 26c | 95.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 94.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked New York Mets | 23c | 92.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed New York Mets | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 68c | 83.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked New York Mets | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7cf6backed New York Mets | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 76.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 68.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked New York Mets | 60c | 67.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 67.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked New York Mets | 59c | 66.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed New York Mets | 41c | 65.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed New York Mets | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked New York Mets | 26c | 61.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked New York Mets | 43c | 57.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 307 | 40.4%124 W · 183 L | -11.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 56.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed New York Mets | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked New York Mets | 75c | 44.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed New York Mets | 59c | 42.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed New York Mets | 33c | 34.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 32.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…31f9backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 224 | 45.5%102 W · 122 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 25.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked New York Mets | 57c | 21.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked New York Mets | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…b9cfbacked New York Mets | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked New York Mets | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.