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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,722 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes24c980.26$240 inLost-$239.671,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No78c467.96$364 inWon+$104.2462960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes11c358.14$40 inLost-$39.7482742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c252.99$200 inWon+$53.42,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes27c205$56 inLost-$55.7461122.7%139 W · 472 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No73c201.35$147 inWon+$54.3610,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$1023237.5%87 W · 145 L+30.6wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+79.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes15c199.99$31 inLost-$3140432.7%132 W · 272 L+24.3wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes7c199.97$14 inLost-$141,45827.8%406 W · 1,052 L+77.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes12c190$22 inLost-$21.964,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c43…1608backed No74c135.14$100 inWon+$35.143865.8%25 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes20c131$26 inLost-$26.3849024.9%122 W · 368 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes23c116.54$26 inLost-$26.266,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes25c114$28 inLost-$27.935812.1%7 W · 51 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes22c102$22 inLost-$22.442,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes22c102$22 inLost-$22.4499757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c95.96$70 inWon+$25.556,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c95.22$70 inWon+$24.764,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c89$66 inWon+$23.195,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes23c79.59$19 inLost-$18.631657.6%182 W · 134 L+0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No74c64$47 inWon+$16.6488660.7%538 W · 348 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c61.49$45 inWon+$16.4910,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No74c56$41 inWon+$14.568061.3%49 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed No80c52.46$42 inWon+$10.5726253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No77c40$31 inWon+$9.41,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No73c39.05$28 inWon+$10.6160032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed No76c36.97$28 inWon+$8.7610863.9%69 W · 39 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No78c28.03$22 inWon+$6.1725158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd8e…fb01backed No76c26.32$20 inWon+$6.326275.8%47 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No74c20.27$15 inWon+$5.2721146.9%99 W · 112 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.