Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc14fec7cf9b2bdbdfbc577c8b6f06c9592e0743aeffcc067461c24e31977456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 1,084$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.92 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 33c | 966.56$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.8 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 31c | 684.2$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.61 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…0decbacked No | 74c | 638.93$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 612.23$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.24 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 30c | 444.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked No | 2c | 420$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 416.42$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 64c | 381.1$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.37 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 15c | 373.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 25c | 361.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.3 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 37c | 349.53$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 335.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 69c | 231.06$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 230.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 22c | 219.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 5c | 219.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…f73bbacked No | 42c | 211.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 33c | 208.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 193$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 176.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 23c | 176.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 486 | 39.7%193 W · 293 L | +21.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 170$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 159.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 158.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.11 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed No | 78c | 147.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 70c | 140.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…72c8backed Yes | 36c | 139.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 19c | 136.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 31c | 120.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 111.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 32c | 107.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 106.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 70c | 105$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 102.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 70c | 100.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 97.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 90.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…668ebacked No | 42c | 83.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 21c | 81.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 75.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 73.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 56c | 65.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 20c | 64.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 33c | 58.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 52c | 58.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 69c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 50.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 50.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 46.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 32c | 45.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 65c | 45.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 79c | 40.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 244 | 45.1%110 W · 134 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 29c | 38.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 36.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…6b23backed No | 41c | 29.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 27.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 21.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…3fd5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 69c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 71c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafeb…f35dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.