Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9858c25c91003ddbdb734f5b30144add55f78f7b83d758104f3f0f69916d184e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 2c | 908.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 4c | 489.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 429.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 9c | 392.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 326.77$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 8c | 280.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 38c | 279.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 4c | 259.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 249.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…668ebacked No | 76c | 235.04$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 182$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 59c | 168.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 34c | 149.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 130.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 42c | 115.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 107.76$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 99.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 77c | 95.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 20c | 89.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 18c | 89.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 81.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 79.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 36c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 22c | 67.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 49c | 63.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 60.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 49c | 56.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 20c | 54.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 69c | 52.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 48.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 28c | 48.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 35c | 33.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 30.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 29.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 78c | 29.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 43c | 28.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed No | 57c | 27.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 21.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 63c | 21.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…3fd5backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 67c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 18.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 60c | 17.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.