Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac955f60350fbec2adf24edeff7d7dc35b079f1ba8561392bb3975e18f7a5006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 1c | 954.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 44c | 381.14$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 47c | 377.23$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 290.72$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 260.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…02c3backed Yes | 41c | 232.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 211.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 56c | 191.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 10c | 165.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 41c | 165.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 160.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 151.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 133.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 127.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 120.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…dc16backed Yes | 48c | 95.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 87.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 46c | 81.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 80.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 56c | 77.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 41c | 76.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 75.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 68c | 74.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 68c | 72.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 35c | 71.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 51c | 65.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 63.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 61.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 65c | 59.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 59.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 56.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 66c | 55.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1183…f754backed Yes | 31c | 50.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 48c | 48.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 35c | 48.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 46.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 45.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 36c | 43.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 42.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777a…001abacked Yes | 35c | 40.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 37.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…8b64backed Yes | 37c | 36.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 33.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 44c | 33.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 31.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 31.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 48c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 48c | 28.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 41c | 27.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 40c | 25.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 24.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 24.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 55c | 23.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 53c | 23.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 22.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…74cdbacked Yes | 51c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 51c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed No | 69c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…4af7backed No | 62c | 16.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 68c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.