MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacefaba15116de361eb820ddda88e3ce4cceba1622ac22cbc6e92dcdad21b7d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc408…c1efbacked Over | 40c | 20,000$7,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,996.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 60c | 8,516$5,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,406.38 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 8,058$4,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,206.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…b33cbacked Under | 65c | 6,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.2 | 260 | 56.9%148 W · 112 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 3,610$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 3,376$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.43 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 52c | 3,374$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.37 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.99 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 35c | 1,138$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 1,011$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.65 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 49c | 992.78$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.46 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 771$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.39 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…b180backed Under | 54c | 657.19$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 656.15$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 60c | 474.3$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.72 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 51c | 391.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.83 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 308.93$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 60c | 257$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 214.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…d1cbbacked Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 41c | 202.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…6844backed Under | 56c | 201$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 187.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 33c | 151.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 120.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 60c | 112.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 47c | 75.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 53c | 67.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 67.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 64.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 64.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…77e6backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…9c13backed Over | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 52.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 43c | 49.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 40.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 52c | 39.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 48c | 39.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 62c | 38.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 53c | 37.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Under | 53c | 33.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Under | 74c | 32.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 31.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 46c | 30.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Under | 52c | 29.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 50c | 23.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…f82cbacked Under | 67c | 21.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 60c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…ec3ebacked Under | 63c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 69c | 15.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.