MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x369b9ce08e85640e17cb2a7222c7aa5ca86142838939228a1b62bb43eefe2bdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 4,811$2,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,628.68 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 3,659$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.54 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 1,892$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.06 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 1,799$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 1,549$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.91 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,463$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.41 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 820$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.8 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 781.93$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.18 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 460$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 391.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 377.7$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.61 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 359.66$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.2 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 320$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 303.25$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 273.06$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.86 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 238.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 226.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Chicago Cubs | 21c | 196$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.84 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 180.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 160.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 160.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 158.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 157.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 152.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 151.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 149.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 140.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 130.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 123.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 21c | 89.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 81.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 73.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 60.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.8wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 57.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 57.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 49.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 45.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 43.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 35.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 34.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 31.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 25.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 25.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…2c8ebacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 24.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 22.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.