Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tearlaments (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad12da58cefad74b271d40471e620b90a06900eae4645a3cc932616917c4ccae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tearlaments | 17c | 6,001$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.42 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tearlaments | 17c | 3,885$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.25 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed MOUZ | 77c | 2,094$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.64 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Tearlaments | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Tearlaments | 18c | 1,200$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Tearlaments | 17c | 1,096$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.46 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tearlaments | 17c | 999.94$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed MOUZ | 80c | 635.9$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.18 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Tearlaments | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tearlaments | 19c | 451.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Tearlaments | 16c | 420.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tearlaments | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Tearlaments | 17c | 352.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Tearlaments | 13c | 342.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked MOUZ | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tearlaments | 17c | 247$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tearlaments | 12c | 222.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Tearlaments | 18c | 220.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Tearlaments | 20c | 216.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Tearlaments | 17c | 213.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed MOUZ | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Tearlaments | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Tearlaments | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…3bc8backed MOUZ | 80c | 160.14$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Tearlaments | 25c | 158.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Tearlaments | 12c | 152.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…3e80backed Tearlaments | 23c | 150.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Tearlaments | 8c | 150.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Tearlaments | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tearlaments | 14c | 127.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9250…c0cbbacked Tearlaments | 11c | 118.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…922ebacked Tearlaments | 18c | 113.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…3532backed Tearlaments | 10c | 106.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Tearlaments | 19c | 106.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Tearlaments | 20c | 100.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Tearlaments | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b9cebacked Tearlaments | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Tearlaments | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…1f2abacked MOUZ | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…7fa0backed Tearlaments | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Tearlaments | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Tearlaments | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Tearlaments | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Tearlaments | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed Tearlaments | 23c | 61.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…f02bbacked MOUZ | 74c | 56.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 79c | 53.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Tearlaments | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc8…7d7dbacked MOUZ | 77c | 40.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…0c19backed MOUZ | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed MOUZ | 79c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.