CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs magic (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad24079542ee456adcd343da491562409d76161dd888359cf75a66549998e1a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked magic | 56c | 1,763$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.16 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…b921backed magic | 3c | 1,556$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked magic | 45c | 1,392$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.49 | 749 | 56.7%425 W · 324 L | +47.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…e615backed magic | 71c | 1,343$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.36 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed illwill | 44c | 1,311$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.78 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed magic | 1c | 950$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 215 | 0.9%2 W · 213 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed magic | 30c | 880.08$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.44 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed illwill | 32c | 752.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.32 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked illwill | 33c | 739.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.48 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +22.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed illwill | 53c | 728.67$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.32 | 834 | 43.6%364 W · 470 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked magic | 40c | 685.37$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.15 | 172 | 40.1%69 W · 103 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked illwill | 55c | 591.79$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.3 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…d538backed illwill | 77c | 534.56$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.59 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked illwill | 56c | 526.92$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.35 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47f…d792backed magic | 64c | 470.03$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.99 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked magic | 3c | 440$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed illwill | 61c | 416.01$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.54 | 932 | 61.7%575 W · 357 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked illwill | 60c | 339.62$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 5,474 | 46.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed magic | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 645 | 54.4%351 W · 294 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked illwill | 55c | 311.36$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 345 | 42.3%146 W · 199 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked magic | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 297 | 39.4%117 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed magic | 30c | 267.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 500 | 43%215 W · 285 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked magic | 46c | 246.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 55c | 228.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f69…1535backed illwill | 51c | 219.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…ab95backed illwill | 52c | 199.58$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed magic | 19c | 174.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed illwill | 53c | 161.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed magic | 58c | 139.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 6,466 | 42.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L | -78.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked illwill | 49c | 129.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 1,318 | 51.7%682 W · 636 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked illwill | 45c | 104.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c92…5567backed illwill | 45c | 104.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked illwill | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked illwill | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked magic | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed illwill | 70c | 99.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…4b3abacked illwill | 36c | 90.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed illwill | 34c | 87.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 205 | 56.6%116 W · 89 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed magic | 32c | 81.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 367 | 42.8%157 W · 210 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4048…d4adbacked magic | 46c | 74.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed magic | 27c | 70.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked magic | 29c | 70.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed magic | 40c | 69.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed illwill | 67c | 59.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed magic | 55c | 57.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed illwill | 55c | 48.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed magic | 29c | 46.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked illwill | 36c | 42.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed magic | 66c | 39.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 2,520 | 43%1,084 W · 1,436 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed magic | 70c | 35.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 265 | 64.2%170 W · 95 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe67d…573dbacked magic | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed illwill | 45c | 32.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed illwill | 52c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked magic | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed illwill | 45c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37fb…42c5backed illwill | 50c | 21.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed magic | 68c | 19.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked illwill | 63c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs magic (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs magic - Map 2 Winnermagic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.