CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Spirit (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad28c71393f0f840c194130c704ca50b21ee6f290a747dd6fce8c730a0b1050f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof paiN, Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed paiN | 13c | 41,108$5,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,228.31 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f33…63c8backed paiN | 14c | 4,527$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked paiN | 14c | 2,129$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.73 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked paiN | 15c | 2,031$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.89 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed paiN | 14c | 2,006$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.17 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked paiN | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked paiN | 8c | 1,594$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 303 | 48.5%147 W · 156 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed paiN | 14c | 1,196$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.41 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed paiN | 14c | 1,191$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.57 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked paiN | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 239 | 32.2%77 W · 162 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed paiN | 14c | 725$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed paiN | 11c | 613.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed paiN | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked paiN | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed paiN | 15c | 490$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 137 | 40.9%56 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked paiN | 15c | 276$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked paiN | 20c | 270$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed paiN | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed paiN | 16c | 212.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked paiN | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked paiN | 14c | 149.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…a583backed paiN | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed paiN | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked paiN | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed paiN | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Spirit (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.