World Politics · resolved market
Will Samuel Doria Medina qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad32a7a4acc462d19b03d862090dead0ff7e0856e6ce1ac5319aaa499df32429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb30f…9505backed Yes | 2c | 7,106$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 1c | 6,042$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,467$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,887$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 67c | 1,692$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.8 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 11c | 1,377$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.12 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 61c | 1,300$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.41 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 9c | 1,207$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.61 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 11c | 1,176$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.63 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…4888backed No | 19c | 1,039$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 849.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 21c | 733.09$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.77 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 28c | 660.93$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.94 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc3…8422backed Yes | 79c | 627.03$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 7c | 600$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked No | 67c | 594.59$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed No | 59c | 500.25$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.25 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…0d08backed Yes | 24c | 471.12$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 13c | 414.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.28 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 57c | 358.18$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…a17ebacked No | 12c | 332.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 58c | 245.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 12c | 222.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 72c | 199.8$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 44c | 199.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 23c | 164.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 37c | 161.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 133.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 123.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…14b0backed Yes | 29c | 111.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…9a2dbacked No | 13c | 101.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 32c | 99.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 97.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4062…e100backed Yes | 24c | 84.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 76c | 63.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed No | 66c | 39.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Yes | 43c | 30.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 73c | 24.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 75c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…4018backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +4,435.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Samuel Doria Medina qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff?this page
- Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff?No won
- Will Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.