TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,235,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,193,725

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,235,798 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes8c617,838$48,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,332.486439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes11c90,000$9,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,525.0413334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes10c30,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c23,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes11c18,955$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085.15230.8%16 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes9c15,555$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.12817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+285.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes10c10,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0107932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1003525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes11c9,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9907345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes23c8,862$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes12c7,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8401618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c7,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes15c6,666$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.92326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes14c6,178$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.0111741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes11c6,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6602931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes11c6,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6608641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes14c5,516$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.696737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes9c5,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4404847.9%23 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes12c4,987$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6237625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c4,937$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5918216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes10c4,600$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4662218.2%4 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-71.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes11c4,570$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.38932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53cf…7d67backed Yes1c4,390$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.694037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes7c4,000$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2627317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes11c4,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4402729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes12c3,900$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.57423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes9c3,765$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.28248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+1,305.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x119e…fd71backed Yes14c3,634$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d2…32abbacked Yes12c3,600$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes12c3,562$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.0357636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde7e…3520backed Yes1c3,526$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4976…d25cbacked Yes12c3,051$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.061241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe98f…d487backed Yes9c2,901$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes10c2,500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Yes11c2,500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c2,400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11c3…816abacked Yes10c2,264$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes7c2,117$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.279423.4%22 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes9c1,950$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.514327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+189.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaa1…0418backed Yes12c1,675$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No72c1,499$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.8118530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes11c1,380$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.81250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6998…9ff2backed Yes11c1,369$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.581353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick30cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90b9…62bebacked Yes10c1,341$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ae…b6e6backed Yes9c1,228$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes10c1,200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11619742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes12c1,111$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3212129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes18c1,080$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.442835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No25c920.2$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.152445.8%11 W · 13 L+7.4wins+0.31per pick15cpaid+216.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c854.12$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.61,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a8…59b0backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c825.94$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c815$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3156314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes13c800$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10426139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe491…0559backed Yes11c654.55$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a19…0762backed Yes11c641$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.171315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes12c628.79$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758737.9%33 W · 54 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes10c606.73$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.692846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8e7c…4316backed Yes13c599.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes10c561.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1337117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes15c545.76$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.84531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes7c535.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0720328.6%58 W · 145 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes17c501.37$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.235339.6%21 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95ef…35b5backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes11c450$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.53221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2fb…b448backed Yes12c417.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes12c370$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.78451.2%43 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes6c341.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0811344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d07…293fbacked Yes6c305.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.891145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick19cpaid+87.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes11c300.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1921…5efdbacked Yes14c296.15$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed Yes15c286.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…6638backed Yes11c263.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.971526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes6c249.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.974134.1%14 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Yes11c227.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.432948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c58…caccbacked Yes14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x107d…d49fbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes16c177.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49fb…a441backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes16c130$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.845723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d1…8749backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No41c42.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.941631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.