Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad3dfb3f651e76479b4e19e847dfcaf302341ac26c94b0d3ca55f4d7447b69b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, Evil Geniuses
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed 100 Thieves | 80c | 2,486$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.33 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Evil Geniuses | 30c | 614$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Evil Geniuses | 19c | 540$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…3711backed 100 Thieves | 78c | 320.95$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc983…ebf0backed 100 Thieves | 75c | 298$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…f61bbacked Evil Geniuses | 19c | 280$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Evil Geniuses | 22c | 231.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ba…d81dbacked Evil Geniuses | 9c | 222.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Evil Geniuses | 33c | 198.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Evil Geniuses | 22c | 132.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Evil Geniuses | 41c | 98.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Evil Geniuses | 23c | 78.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Evil Geniuses | 29c | 76.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Evil Geniuses | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 39.4%67 W · 103 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…b0e4backed Evil Geniuses | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed 100 Thieves | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 180 | 56.7%102 W · 78 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 100 Thieves | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 684 | 58.3%399 W · 285 L | +56.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…4955backed 100 Thieves | 67c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked 100 Thieves | 78c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 655 | 59.4%389 W · 266 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.