Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae24547449b3844c434f78dad6e31746bc7299c6a371bc5eb4fe369f18937cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, Evil Geniuses
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb404…f61bbacked Evil Geniuses | 56c | 3,027$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed Evil Geniuses | 27c | 2,781$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 282 | 47.5%134 W · 148 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…3711backed 100 Thieves | 59c | 2,650$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.46 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed 100 Thieves | 53c | 2,543$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.2 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed 100 Thieves | 69c | 2,175$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.14 | 343 | 56.9%195 W · 148 L | +23.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Evil Geniuses | 40c | 2,081$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.06 | 684 | 58.3%399 W · 285 L | +56.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Evil Geniuses | 30c | 1,771$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.3 | 191 | 57.1%109 W · 82 L | +23.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Evil Geniuses | 5c | 1,112$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed 100 Thieves | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 184 | 57.1%105 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked 100 Thieves | 68c | 556.29$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.85 | 655 | 59.4%389 W · 266 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…3eafbacked 100 Thieves | 54c | 526.82$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Evil Geniuses | 32c | 356.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 212 | 40.1%85 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Evil Geniuses | 37c | 296$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Evil Geniuses | 73c | 270$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked 100 Thieves | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed 100 Thieves | 68c | 239.54$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed 100 Thieves | 72c | 222.37$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed 100 Thieves | 49c | 203$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.13 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed 100 Thieves | 29c | 173.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.26 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Evil Geniuses | 30c | 159.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Evil Geniuses | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked 100 Thieves | 71c | 140.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 244 | 57.8%141 W · 103 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…ab33backed Evil Geniuses | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…189dbacked 100 Thieves | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked Evil Geniuses | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…bc3cbacked 100 Thieves | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked 100 Thieves | 15c | 96.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 170 | 39.4%67 W · 103 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f6…b9eabacked 100 Thieves | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…3840backed Evil Geniuses | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed 100 Thieves | 16c | 67.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked 100 Thieves | 77c | 66.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 519 | 48.4%251 W · 268 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed 100 Thieves | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed 100 Thieves | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 337 | 59.6%201 W · 136 L | +18.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…d57dbacked 100 Thieves | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed 100 Thieves | 74c | 39.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed 100 Thieves | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 321 | 52.6%169 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Evil Geniuses | 47c | 32.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Evil Geniuses | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…ab84backed Evil Geniuses | 45c | 23.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…0194backed 100 Thieves | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed 100 Thieves | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…7350backed 100 Thieves | 69c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.