Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 69°F or below on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad493e4b8d090a74a7f2d4f7408184a5600b3aadb5fc1bb58e6b66350db073e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b2b…777cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,601$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +199.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 0c | 4,769$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 39c | 366.73$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.17 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 305.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 37c | 292.44$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 243.93$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 46c | 238.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 47c | 208.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 48c | 206.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 52c | 194.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 52c | 187.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 174.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 167.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 41c | 163.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 67c | 154.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 51c | 154.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 150.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 141.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 116.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 44c | 108.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 38c | 105.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 38c | 105.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 42c | 92.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 38c | 92.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 41c | 83.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 81.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 80.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 62c | 79.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 54c | 76.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 73.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 38c | 69.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…bc88backed Yes | 55c | 63.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 60.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 47c | 60.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 34c | 59.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 31c | 58.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 42c | 58.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 40c | 58.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 57.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 55.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 46c | 54.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 55c | 52.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9615backed Yes | 41c | 46.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 32c | 46.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…0badbacked Yes | 53c | 44.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed Yes | 34c | 39.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 49c | 38.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 51c | 38.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 58c | 37.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…a179backed Yes | 50c | 37.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed No | 52c | 36.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 34.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb010…ed50backed Yes | 56c | 34.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 53c | 33.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 57c | 33.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 52c | 31.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 54c | 31.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…4002backed Yes | 39c | 30.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 63c | 29.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b345backed No | 55c | 26.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…2e6cbacked Yes | 41c | 26.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 62c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…0c2ebacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…c965backed Yes | 46c | 21.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 61c | 21.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 54c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 64c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…4efbbacked No | 61c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 62c | 20.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…bf0abacked Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…a61cbacked No | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…b5abbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 63c | 16.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 69°F or below on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.