Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad69b03de3f937ddbd88881f1f95f3c74ebf59584c62fc65511edf668e77c267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 449.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…2770backed Yes | 12c | 423.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 30c | 386.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…1407backed Yes | 11c | 374.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 18c | 318.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…2a42backed Yes | 18c | 296.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 7c | 240$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 12c | 190.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 78c | 184.35$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 140.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 139.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 15c | 132.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 76c | 132.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 11c | 107.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 21c | 105.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 12c | 104.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 14c | 98.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 95.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 13c | 95.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 90.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 86.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 17c | 84.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 78.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 75c | 68.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…af35backed No | 73c | 68.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 80c | 33.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed No | 63c | 32.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 69c | 29.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 24.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 22.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.