Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45067ac590233974b171d3c4e4adcc37a40d916cc63511bfdb5e7125a0a4633f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e6c…2770backed Yes | 21c | 239.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 24c | 207.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 182.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 174.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 169.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 153.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 15c | 132.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 58c | 126.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 116.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…2a42backed Yes | 28c | 113.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…1407backed Yes | 70c | 108.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 30c | 101.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 100.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 72c | 99.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 99.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 30c | 92.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 86.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 58c | 86.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 20c | 86.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 29c | 86.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 69c | 86.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 85.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 75.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 65.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…fab1backed Yes | 32c | 61.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 59.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 22c | 59.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 55.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 78c | 54.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 40c | 48.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 46c | 48.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 77c | 44.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 44.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 43.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 42.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 42.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 41.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 40.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 77c | 39.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 59c | 38.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 43c | 38.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 32c | 36.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes | 33c | 34.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 31.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 75c | 29.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 27.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 63c | 24.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 63c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 79c | 17.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 16.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 78c | 13.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.