Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c1989f6d37fba546136920d06943541b85ea368bed07974a3e46e10f5136dac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 75c | 1,284$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.56 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 762.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 731.46$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 719.62$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.51 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 659.61$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…0e64backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked No | 77c | 577.95$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.71 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 360$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 24c | 325$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 277.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 249.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 248.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 203.49$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 21c | 159$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 21c | 139$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 27c | 118.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 114.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 13c | 109.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 107.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 16c | 105.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2274…ffe9backed Yes | 24c | 103.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 103.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 96.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed No | 77c | 93.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 84.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 15c | 80.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 73.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 68.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 18c | 63.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed No | 76c | 63.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 23c | 60.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…0568backed Yes | 24c | 45.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 39.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 74c | 22.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 75c | 20.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 77c | 20.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 19.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 77c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 77c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.