Movies · resolved market
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadd8f8a515cc9ca3292c093cc63ad421dce8820b6253cf95dc9e3531fab35d33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,081$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.06 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed No | 25c | 1,000$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…ccc1backed Yes | 79c | 440.93$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 220.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 45c | 188.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 50c | 155.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 126.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 72c | 97.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 94.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 69.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 68.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 54.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 43.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…23b3backed Yes | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?this page
- Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m?No won
- Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m?No won
- Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m?No won
- Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.