TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Onion Team vs Orbit Anonymo (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Orbit Anonymoof Onion Team, Orbit Anonymo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd38c…1128backed Orbit Anonymo71c6,764$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Onion Team69c2,179$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.613,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Onion Team10c2,103$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013136.6%48 W · 83 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Onion Team59c1,706$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.8182554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Orbit Anonymo31c1,385$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.761145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Onion Team70c1,183$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.6720151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Orbit Anonymo70c1,106$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.431,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Onion Team29c1,082$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.0714644.5%65 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Onion Team26c1,021$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.849439.4%37 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d9e…456bbacked Onion Team35c969.12$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.628360.2%50 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Onion Team27c775.47$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.251,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Orbit Anonymo32c764.39$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.261,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b3c…38c1backed Orbit Anonymo71c760.76$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Onion Team28c733.16$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2036041.7%25 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Orbit Anonymo33c642.01$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.699338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…58f0backed Onion Team67c637.2$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.921442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Orbit Anonymo33c572.1$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.159248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Orbit Anonymo70c570$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4143947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9135…a63ebacked Onion Team17c486.84$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.927919%15 W · 64 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Orbit Anonymo30c426$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.227636.2%100 W · 176 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Orbit Anonymo56c414$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.8267931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Orbit Anonymo72c385$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5745344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Onion Team27c375.95$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick48cpaid-77.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Onion Team33c332.91$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4492342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Orbit Anonymo66c324.2$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.923348.1%112 W · 121 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed Orbit Anonymo31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.581010%1 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Orbit Anonymo70c317$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7737345%168 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked Onion Team64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030160.8%183 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Orbit Anonymo31c309.67$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.675937.3%22 W · 37 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Orbit Anonymo31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20744743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Orbit Anonymo31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20736048.9%176 W · 184 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Orbit Anonymo31c290.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.3256650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Orbit Anonymo66c271$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.730545.2%138 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Onion Team68c251.65$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1219844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Onion Team47c250.27$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.067343.8%32 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Onion Team21c238.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026448.5%128 W · 136 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Onion Team24c228.23$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.342,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Onion Team70c210.6$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4222536.9%83 W · 142 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Onion Team22c210$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.266445.6%303 W · 361 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Onion Team48c209.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7646…b2a1backed Orbit Anonymo74c202.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.72437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Orbit Anonymo30c200.37$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8254129.9%162 W · 379 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcefa…40bbbacked Orbit Anonymo74c199.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed Orbit Anonymo71c199.99$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Onion Team68c184.1$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1942735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Onion Team70c182.49$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7441133.8%139 W · 272 L-28.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa474…61babacked Onion Team77c178.79$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Orbit Anonymo31c177.69$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.291,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd572…5510backed Onion Team70c174.48$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed Onion Team23c173.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.441315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Onion Team34c171.47$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.710933%36 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…8d29backed Onion Team68c160.8$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.341266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Onion Team68c155.27$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.582,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c62…6cb4backed Orbit Anonymo32c149.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.592646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f0…e443backed Onion Team68c143.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa34…6628backed Orbit Anonymo75c135$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.753545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Onion Team33c133.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.92,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Orbit Anonymo29c127.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.563627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Orbit Anonymo64c125.79$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.151,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d8d…674fbacked Onion Team69c124.06$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+67.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Orbit Anonymo31c119.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.691,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38d0…5ea8backed Orbit Anonymo29c117.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.316048.1%77 W · 83 L+14.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Orbit Anonymo66c117.42$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1316421.3%35 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Onion Team34c116.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.841,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Orbit Anonymo31c115$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.988033.8%27 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Orbit Anonymo56c113$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.721650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f74…4fccbacked Orbit Anonymo31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695337.7%20 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked Onion Team71c97.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2618440.8%75 W · 109 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked Orbit Anonymo31c96.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.773046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c39…9acbbacked Orbit Anonymo75c90$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.21225%3 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-60.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Orbit Anonymo31c86.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1730247%142 W · 160 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Onion Team17c79.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.887028.6%20 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Orbit Anonymo30c78.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0292450.9%470 W · 454 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed Orbit Anonymo31c77.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5412428.2%35 W · 89 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb7…391ebacked Onion Team69c74.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Onion Team42c73.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.262,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ab…219bbacked Orbit Anonymo30c72.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.92742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4319…7901backed Onion Team70c70$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Orbit Anonymo32c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.621,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Orbit Anonymo33c69.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.568055%44 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9db…d934backed Orbit Anonymo64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a07…ce91backed Onion Team40c61.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Orbit Anonymo31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.428240.4%114 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Orbit Anonymo74c59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.583,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Onion Team30c57.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9116043.1%69 W · 91 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a32…9875backed Orbit Anonymo55c54.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.812343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef5…671fbacked Orbit Anonymo64c51.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4113467.2%90 W · 44 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Orbit Anonymo32c51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.671233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae1…899cbacked Onion Team70c50.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Onion Team69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.558042.4%246 W · 334 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd1…cfb4backed Orbit Anonymo79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5004…c07bbacked Orbit Anonymo31c48.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3913360.9%81 W · 52 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c94…2d22backed Orbit Anonymo77c42.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.882356.5%13 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed Orbit Anonymo31c41.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.949035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Orbit Anonymo75c41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1726940.5%109 W · 160 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5285…1457backed Onion Team69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.64151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Orbit Anonymo71c39.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.391,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Orbit Anonymo73c39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5322636.7%83 W · 143 L-16.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5834…7c9abacked Onion Team54c36.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.86749.3%33 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee3…9a19backed Onion Team69c35.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.