Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae0c76a039fdf44f6fccbab3748d673f27b8372f5878d7537be1113a050d2634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 78c | 4,190$3,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.18 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 16c | 3,480$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.36 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 8c | 3,423$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.24 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…ac1cbacked Down | 39c | 2,864$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 27c | 2,740$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.81 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 5c | 2,451$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.94 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 5c | 1,499$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Down | 27c | 1,356$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.77 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…6f22backed Up | 52c | 1,281$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 48c | 1,170$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.9 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 50c | 980$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…1ca6backed Down | 9c | 966.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 3c | 940$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 33c | 860.31$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.69 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 10c | 811.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 17c | 795.46$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d5…1343backed Up | 79c | 768$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Up | 55c | 727$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.48 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 52c | 716.45$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.01 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Down | 42c | 713.29$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.28 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…c07ebacked Down | 40c | 712.7$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed Up | 54c | 520$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.2 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 60c | 510$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.4 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 26c | 380$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1c…6b73backed Up | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Down | 9c | 348.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Down | 22c | 310$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a1bebacked Down | 44c | 232.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Down | 7c | 211.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Up | 62c | 202.81$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Down | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Down | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…df97backed Down | 9c | 199.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 43c | 135.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Down | 37c | 105.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Up | 61c | 87.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Down | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6384backed Down | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Down | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 70c | 69.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…9b72backed Down | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…8e3ebacked Down | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Up | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Up | 75c | 18.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.