Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae275d28fa9d89f2ea3dddfda2282bd0e65a4e2abdadb3918af87b48c8314bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,333$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 74c | 343.25$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 18c | 313.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 250.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 19c | 238.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 62c | 228.25$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 207.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 69c | 185.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 13c | 180.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 179.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 174.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…0c7abacked No | 61c | 163.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 57c | 136.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 16c | 134$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…520fbacked Yes | 76c | 131.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 72c | 127$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 124.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed No | 32c | 122.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 106.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 106.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 65c | 106.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 63c | 105.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 49c | 101.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 61c | 92.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 87.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed No | 62c | 83.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 36c | 82.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…3416backed Yes | 37c | 78.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 77.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 35c | 76.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 21c | 74.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 73.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 59.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 59.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 71c | 57.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 56.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 55.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 54.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 41c | 52.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 22c | 51.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 50.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 69c | 50.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 48.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 61c | 48.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 48c | 41.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…5f75backed Yes | 61c | 40.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 63c | 40.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 39.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 42c | 35.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed No | 35c | 34.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 33.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 69c | 30.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…c579backed No | 39c | 29.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 47c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…bae5backed Yes | 59c | 28.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 53c | 28.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 45c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed Yes | 37c | 27.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 69c | 26.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 46c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 52c | 24.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed No | 49c | 24.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 65c | 23.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 23.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 53c | 22.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…3d06backed Yes | 55c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb01e…c9edbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 69c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 66c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 17.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 70c | 17.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 72c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66d3…6538backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.