CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae3661e25710d9897d9db1a564946584e0521ce5d10160fd5e9fe5cb36f17033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of Natus Vincere, M80
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64c4…1018backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 1,759$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4734…4ed5backed M80 | 44c | 1,137$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 521.74$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.74 | 647 | 48.4%313 W · 334 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…4959backed M80 | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…a612backed M80 | 44c | 464.09$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.24 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed M80 | 33c | 457.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.26 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…aedebacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 449.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…4a39backed M80 | 44c | 179.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 54.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed M80 | 33c | 47.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 255 | 53.3%136 W · 119 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf56…22fdbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 40.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group AM80 won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 2 WinnerM80 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5)Natus Vincere won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5)M80 won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5)M80 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.