NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae40ad09b18392c38ac8b5c7a8a8ff401f0b12d2eb79ba422d0811798b4d87ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 7,932$3,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…c625backed Under | 51c | 7,088$3,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,473.13 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 938.85$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.98 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 626.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 52c | 615.38$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.38 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 45c | 547.29$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.81 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 55c | 503$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.27 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 49c | 212.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…f320backed Under | 52c | 179.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 52c | 139$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…edb4backed Under | 76c | 130.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 24c | 130.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Under | 52c | 126.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 47c | 123.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Under | 53c | 94.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 531 | 41.8%222 W · 309 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 240.5this page
- Spread: Pacers (-6.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-7.5)Pacers won
- Wizards vs. PacersPacers won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.