NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pacers (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8b3450bb8e30d2e905fe433cdbc7057b315c7eddb86c995fa55fe2c55525c71

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pacersof Pacers, Wizards
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,344 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf84b…3f64backed Wizards	51c	10,100$5,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,151	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5650…ce21backed Pacers	49c	10,100$4,949 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,151	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd041…7b26backed Wizards	52c	5,779$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.3wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+59.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers	49c	5,532$2,695 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,836.89	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Pacers	52c	3,333$1,733 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,599.83	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers	51c	2,168$1,116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,051.58	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Pacers	50c	2,090$1,045 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,045	145	49%71 W · 74 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Wizards	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Wizards	50c	1,973$987 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$986.52	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers	48c	1,411$682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$729.27	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers	48c	1,348$647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$700.9	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacers	53c	1,331$705 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$625.57	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards	48c	1,189$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.72	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wizards	51c	1,037$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.4	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Wizards	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards	48c	792.47$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.06	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Wizards	48c	775.91$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.44	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards	48c	626.98$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.95	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f8…09f7backed Wizards	48c	622.75$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.92	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-4.7wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Wizards	50c	604$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.08	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Wizards	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	249	55%137 W · 112 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Pacers	53c	300$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Wizards	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Wizards	49c	199.99$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.99	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Wizards	51c	197.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pacers	49c	196.9$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.28	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4734…4ed5backed Wizards	49c	177.55$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards	49c	168.31$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.47	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Wizards	50c	165$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wizards	49c	161.13$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.17	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Wizards	49c	122.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	-9.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e06…b0d9backed Pacers	51c	118$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.97	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Wizards	48c	114.58$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Wizards	51c	112.32$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc5…9cf9backed Wizards	47c	105.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.93	69	56.5%39 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Pacers	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Pacers	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Pacers	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Wizards	47c	95$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.65	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Pacers	52c	86.54$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.54	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x897d…90c9backed Wizards	47c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	165	59.4%98 W · 67 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad7…6574backed Wizards	52c	69.71$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.25	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Pacers	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5631…bd3abacked Pacers	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	56	62.5%35 W · 21 L	+6.4wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8e3…5061backed Wizards	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.34per pick	46cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked Pacers	52c	42.98$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.63	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Wizards	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	234	45.7%107 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Wizards	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Wizards	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f1…c325backed Wizards	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Wizards	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Pacers	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Pacers	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Pacers	47c	37.74$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Wizards	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa19f…f745backed Wizards	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Wizards	50c	34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	162	53.1%86 W · 76 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards	51c	31.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Wizards	46c	27.54$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Wizards	48c	26.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Pacers	53c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	158	41.1%65 W · 93 L	-12.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd2b…e3b1backed Pacers	52c	21.15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.15	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Wizards	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	273	59%161 W · 112 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f48…c93ebacked Wizards	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Wizards	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pacers	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.78	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Pacers (-6.5)this page
Spread: Pacers (-7.5)Pacers won
Wizards vs. PacersPacers won
Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Under won
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5Under won
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 239.5Under won
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 240.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pacers (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event