NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08bbc785f43f5ca551011d53aa665c483d7f09dd4b0904ba331fb11aac455c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 5,910$2,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,955.01 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…3f64backed Over | 55c | 5,100$2,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,805 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…ce21backed Under | 45c | 5,100$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,805 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…1552backed Under | 48c | 2,271$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 2,028$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.19 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,574$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 51c | 971.78$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.61 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 47c | 574.47$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.47 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 55c | 546.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.79 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 27c | 544.23$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 436.96$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…7236backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 54c | 394.63$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 385$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Over | 46c | 355$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 338.76$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 337.1$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.62 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…edb4backed Over | 8c | 297$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Under | 76c | 283.16$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 46c | 225$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…10ebbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…6bffbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4734…4ed5backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Under | 46c | 122.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 118.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 113$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Over | 51c | 99.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…bfb4backed Under | 71c | 92.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…6574backed Under | 47c | 77.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed Over | 28c | 59.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Under | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 51c | 32.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Under | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5this page
- Spread: Pacers (-6.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-7.5)Pacers won
- Wizards vs. PacersPacers won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.