Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tianjin: Sae Noguchi vs Junhan Zhang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae9048f1a924d908a265ac53506a87c0f6f7533a3e830af5cffc4c6c67892880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Junhan Zhangof Sae Noguchi, Junhan Zhang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Sae Noguchi | 1c | 9,473$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 1,071 | 36.8%394 W · 677 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Junhan Zhang | 29c | 4,990$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,540.62 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ab…ee2bbacked Sae Noguchi | 74c | 1,863$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Junhan Zhang | 52c | 1,178$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.49 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13f…343fbacked Sae Noguchi | 73c | 897.04$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.72 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Sae Noguchi | 56c | 852.73$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.53 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed Junhan Zhang | 40c | 647.06$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.06 | 355 | 50.7%180 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…cd8cbacked Junhan Zhang | 53c | 600.13$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sae Noguchi | 49c | 540.68$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.82 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Junhan Zhang | 38c | 474.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.59 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Junhan Zhang | 55c | 434.55$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.9 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Sae Noguchi | 75c | 343.74$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.51 | 782 | 48.3%378 W · 404 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Sae Noguchi | 42c | 309.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 929 | 53.5%497 W · 432 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sae Noguchi | 12c | 280.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed Sae Noguchi | 62c | 263.59$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 218 | 41.3%90 W · 128 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Junhan Zhang | 49c | 252.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sae Noguchi | 12c | 212.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sae Noguchi | 74c | 191.47$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…3b57backed Sae Noguchi | 73c | 146.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sae Noguchi | 75c | 130.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…80b1backed Junhan Zhang | 24c | 124.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 332 | 28.3%94 W · 238 L | -12.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Junhan Zhang | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Sae Noguchi | 75c | 97.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 1,766 | 45.9%810 W · 956 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Junhan Zhang | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Junhan Zhang | 42c | 89.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…8580backed Junhan Zhang | 23c | 85.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sae Noguchi | 55c | 80.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Sae Noguchi | 79c | 80.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…a9c6backed Junhan Zhang | 30c | 79.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Sae Noguchi | 56c | 77.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Junhan Zhang | 49c | 75.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Sae Noguchi | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,456 | 45.1%656 W · 800 L | +42.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Junhan Zhang | 51c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Junhan Zhang | 50c | 61.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 363 | 39.4%143 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…30bcbacked Sae Noguchi | 32c | 59.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Sae Noguchi | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…081ebacked Sae Noguchi | 73c | 53.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 72cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Sae Noguchi | 46c | 52.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Junhan Zhang | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 441 | 44.7%197 W · 244 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…ccc3backed Sae Noguchi | 57c | 43.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Junhan Zhang | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 329 | 63.8%210 W · 119 L | +36.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sae Noguchi | 56c | 38.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Junhan Zhang | 47c | 37.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…0111backed Junhan Zhang | 43c | 35.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Sae Noguchi | 73c | 34.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 471 | 66.5%313 W · 158 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Junhan Zhang | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,009 | 38.3%386 W · 623 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Junhan Zhang | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 577 | 36.7%212 W · 365 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Sae Noguchi | 55c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…b710backed Sae Noguchi | 66c | 22.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Sae Noguchi | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Sae Noguchi | 76c | 20.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 433 | 59.6%258 W · 175 L | +26.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Junhan Zhang | 69c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31f…a37cbacked Sae Noguchi | 64c | 17.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Junhan Zhang | 61c | 17.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Junhan Zhang | 61c | 17.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Junhan Zhang | 61c | 17.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 956 | 55.9%534 W · 422 L | +19.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Sae Noguchi | 74c | 15.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…6497backed Sae Noguchi | 69c | 15.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.