NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaef3459668d1dc7d33ab402546c9d55967418d7e40873f2d7a7c70277fadcfdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3a0…e864backed Over | 55c | 23,619$12,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,628.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…50f0backed Under | 45c | 12,345$5,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,555.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…7b4fbacked Under | 45c | 11,275$5,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,073.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 1c | 1,810$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 1,045$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.66 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 55c | 668.42$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.79 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…9fd6backed Under | 58c | 509.23$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 102 | 23.5%24 W · 78 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 51c | 489.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.09 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 444$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 52c | 386$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.28 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 48c | 386$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.28 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 369$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 53c | 346.61$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 328.35$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 269$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…adf1backed Over | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 51c | 196.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 43c | 172.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 49c | 133$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 44c | 132.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Over | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de7…078dbacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Under | 52c | 77.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4562…4f54backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 50c | 39.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Under | 51c | 29.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…a54abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…00ddbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Timberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.