NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e8a14e71fca8ed14672626eaa1f7b7f82f04a31e6f99ba7c842c4949f74923c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 4,112$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Over | 52c | 2,315$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 1,032$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.11 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 716.94$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.94 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 443.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.68 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 53c | 434.56$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over | 53c | 284.15$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…f524backed Over | 54c | 183.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 54c | 112$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…089abacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…1d3bbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Under | 47c | 87.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cb…4fe3backed Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 52c | 63.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…3348backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 224 | 67.9%152 W · 72 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…7d5fbacked Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dd…9889backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Under | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Timberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.