NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5c8e5ac3800025b57632191cfd1c859ded3f23dfbb4f55b0337ea46881e713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Timberwolves, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Nuggets | 53c | 15,513$8,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,304.24 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 47c | 12,684$5,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,963.84 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 48c | 2,707$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.97 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 1,978$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…e0eebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Nuggets | 55c | 1,888$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.6 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Timberwolves | 45c | 1,888$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.6 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,776$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.58 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 49c | 1,238$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.38 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Nuggets | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,023$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.65 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Nuggets | 47c | 826$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.5 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 810$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.3 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Timberwolves | 54c | 530$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.2 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 49c | 496.08$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.08 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Timberwolves | 54c | 329.96$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 37c | 300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…a22dbacked Nuggets | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 48c | 180.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Nuggets | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Nuggets | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Nuggets | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Nuggets | 50c | 101.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Nuggets | 53c | 86.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nuggets | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…2eb1backed Nuggets | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Nuggets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…86debacked Timberwolves | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 45c | 30.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…e40dbacked Nuggets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…148dbacked Nuggets | 53c | 21.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…7228backed Nuggets | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa98…795cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Timberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.