NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40c910f109bb7a1cbdbbb9a4a54d1483ad39029743b8ae7003e9e827b517cab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Timberwolves, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 2,646$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 47c | 2,135$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3db…0b3cbacked Nuggets | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nuggets | 50c | 1,985$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.5 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 1,777$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.3 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Timberwolves | 51c | 777.18$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.36 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 50c | 759.26$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.19 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 49c | 679$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.61 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Nuggets | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 44c | 468.02$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 41c | 271.35$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Nuggets | 50c | 170$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Nuggets | 48c | 160.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Nuggets | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Nuggets | 57c | 78.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Timberwolves | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Timberwolves | 51c | 51.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Nuggets | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Nuggets | 52c | 40.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…ef48backed Timberwolves | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…36f0backed Nuggets | 55c | 39.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Nuggets | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Timberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.