Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf07f89c021b9f309e4244b61fd1d440d20ea3b8af8e1936f27590641eea9d28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 18c | 3,153$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.58 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Over | 22c | 2,285$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.43 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…864bbacked Under | 78c | 1,305$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Over | 22c | 922$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 10c | 558.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 11c | 213.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 21c | 175$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 549 | 34.8%191 W · 358 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1d…cecdbacked Under | 78c | 171.79$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Over | 20c | 90.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 356 | 42.4%151 W · 205 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under | 78c | 74.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 246 | 43.1%106 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 329 | 39.8%131 W · 198 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 197 | 58.9%116 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…5badbacked Over | 23c | 55.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 122 | 61.5%75 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | -21.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 77c | 42.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Under | 77c | 28.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 343 | 57.1%196 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5c…a610backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 78c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…772bbacked Under | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 77c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1,357 | 31.2%423 W · 934 L | -129.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…4a96backed Under | 77c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Game Handicap: EST (-1.5) vs RMD Gaming (+1.5)Estral Esports won
- LoL: Estral Esports vs RMD Gaming (BO3) - Circuito Desafiante PlayoffsEstral Esports won
- LoL: Estral Esports vs RMD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerEstral Esports won
- LoL: Estral Esports vs RMD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerEstral Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.