TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,834
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,840

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,834 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ad3…60c2backed No60c434.46$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c412.62$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes42c302.92$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.6751733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes70c261.04$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7917358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No63c190.89$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.491,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c166.39$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebf…a01dbacked No60c165.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No64c143.92$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No44c128.19$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.757,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No61c127.8$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.382,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5326540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No59c99.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9943139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.785,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c97.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.428,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No11c91.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.162,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No18c85.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.981,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c80.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes41c70.73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.732,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes34c70$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1129740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes44c68.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8610746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No59c67.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.451,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c61.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.657,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes32c59.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes50c59.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5837835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes47c59.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes79c58.44$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.352,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No37c56.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.762,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes44c55.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9380130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No67c55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No36c54.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.811,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No41c53.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes76c52.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.697368.5%50 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c50.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2681848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes49c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.741,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.54443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No55c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.265,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No61c47.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7621068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.223,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2b…fb88backed Yes44c45.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+69.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes34c44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9222744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes61c43.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.312,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes55c42.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1316836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.254,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb56c…30f3backed Yes39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.410455.8%58 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes28c39.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.242,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c39.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.289,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e56…8dcdbacked Yes73c38.19$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fc…5eb2backed Yes79c37.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.92475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683b…c863backed Yes42c35.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.712330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes39c35.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.523,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes36c35.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.79708.6%6 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes40c35.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9220438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x998a…745bbacked Yes43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8814252.1%74 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes41c34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.980735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b3…0568backed Yes35c33.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes45c32.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c32.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.94,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No57c31.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.831,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c30.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe820…9f12backed Yes48c30.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee02…ce88backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910764.5%69 W · 38 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No65c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.213845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes44c27.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5912540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No57c27.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5552758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No59c26.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a7…5b77backed Yes42c26.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.272733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe55…516ebacked Yes44c26.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ee…9dadbacked Yes76c25.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.311485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick76cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No45c24.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No64c22.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5528270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a0…993dbacked Yes63c21.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb8…243bbacked Yes72c20.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.77683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick77cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf9…ea65backed No58c20.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes73c20.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.322,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.93,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c19.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3953353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No58c19.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.971,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes78c18.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x98af…dd79backed No60c16.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105457.4%31 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.