Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b6bed1e98632dd916c306ffc589a4776862a45e14f57ca8a3811107db559d01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 422.57$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 299.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 296.42$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 74c | 291.21$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 75c | 239.76$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 223.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 173.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 166.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 157.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 145$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 14c | 136$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 135.27$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 131.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 28c | 129.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 55c | 114.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 47c | 113.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 48c | 99.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 80.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 78.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…27a9backed Yes | 14c | 77.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 71.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 44c | 68.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 49c | 59.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 55.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…d7dcbacked Yes | 37c | 54.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 52.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 51.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 48.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 47.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 47.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 71c | 44.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…db0cbacked No | 47c | 43.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db8…e377backed Yes | 55c | 43.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 38c | 42.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 42.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…f39bbacked Yes | 54c | 41.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 41.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 38.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed No | 73c | 34.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked No | 47c | 33.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 32.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 31.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 60c | 30.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 27.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 49c | 23.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa481…f126backed No | 73c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 65c | 18.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 65c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…a9afbacked No | 73c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.