NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf145bf0af5dbdd4876b3ab74a7f1db5c02e6c8d636bfb173ecc0c2f0cfb39bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 57c | 61,056$34,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,491.68 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 18,762$8,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,173.01 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 43c | 11,515$4,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,951.63 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 10,218$4,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,393.74 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 44c | 6,540$2,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,877.6 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 43c | 2,450$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.5 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 44c | 1,861$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.91 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 1,744$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.92 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 1,581$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.89 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 42c | 1,120$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.36 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 44c | 1,098$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.62 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 43c | 992$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.56 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 708$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.84 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Under | 43c | 645.83$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.92 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…5fa1backed Over | 58c | 573.62$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.62 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 54c | 565$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.9 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 444$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 43c | 431.4$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.1 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Under | 48c | 207.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 58c | 179.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 44c | 168$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 52c | 154$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 42c | 127.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Over | 58c | 118.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under | 44c | 84.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Over | 57c | 79.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Under | 43c | 57.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 44c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 58c | 29.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. IslandersFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.