NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf21ccf77df7b8d84bad6fb57cbd4a25cdf555fcf65579b1740743f21e18d547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 57c | 6,708$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…598fbacked Over | 54c | 6,100$3,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,294 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 3,916$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.74 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…000bbacked Under | 46c | 3,500$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Under | 44c | 3,129$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.14 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Under | 45c | 2,344$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.44 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Over | 55c | 1,316$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.66 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…5befbacked Under | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…f531backed Under | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 56c | 1,009$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 893.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 820.01$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.2 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…4273backed Over | 42c | 477$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 477$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.34 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…9594backed Over | 58c | 383.45$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 307.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 53c | 277$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.94 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 275.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 248.84$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 57c | 211.6$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked Under | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 55c | 155$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Under | 43c | 140.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…2bb0backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 79.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 39c | 73.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 25c | 57.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 75c | 57.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 45c | 54.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Under | 46c | 39.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 50c | 38.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…9d6bbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Over | 56c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Over | 59c | 23.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Over | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 54c | 20.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 55c | 20.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Devils vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Devils vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Devils vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Devils vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.