MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf46d200bdd5a32a1ec24823f0c7d327489bb8143a6e3ef5678232c7434f92aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 7,207$5,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 34c | 6,898$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.88 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 1,460$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Colorado Rockies | 28c | 957.37$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.59 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 707$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 22c | 705.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.16 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 531$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.73 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 33c | 510$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 31c | 408.7$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 389.47$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 118.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 172 | 45.9%79 W · 93 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 113.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Colorado Rockies | 28c | 62.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 32c | 50.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 45.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 34.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Colorado Rockies | 77c | 23.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 20.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.