MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee358f523668b2616286a077bb55f7da679bfecaf58658e0f20bfb911f5df9cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 21,569$9,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,647.2 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 6,164$3,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,142.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 4,488$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.81 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 4,191$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,220.8 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 2,713$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,687$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,587$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.54 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 1,078$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.14 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 27c | 800$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 19c | 606.14$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 434.39$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.23 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Colorado Rockies | 20c | 379.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 334.21$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.28 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 294.14$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4849…767fbacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 218.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.32 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 210.12$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.87 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…5c37backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 204.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 168.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 20c | 145.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 142.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 112.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 87.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 87.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 63.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 63.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 60.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 54.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 52.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…d492backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 36.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 28.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 22.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 20.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.