MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfafe85dc1adbddd4f0793b94ebaaa149a16302d2993eaf028313dee6e09b3397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 47c | 200,000$94,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105,999.97 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 103,135$54,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,661.45 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Under | 53c | 42,000$22,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,260 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 15,259$8,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,084.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 12,237$6,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,487.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 9,424$5,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,013.89 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 3,063$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 1,755$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.09 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.36 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Under | 53c | 1,123$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 47c | 840.43$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.43 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 686.43$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.94 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 678.81$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.56 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 639.61$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 525.92$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed Under | 53c | 440$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 55c | 369.16$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 53c | 367$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.77 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 28c | 330.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.39 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 53c | 283.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 258$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 47c | 250.94$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 249.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 48c | 215.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…ff8cbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Over | 48c | 207.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.34 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Under | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 137.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 47c | 128.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 52c | 118.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 47c | 112$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 105.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Under | 53c | 78.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 77.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 54c | 70.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 55c | 65.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 62.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed Over | 37c | 40.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 52c | 39.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…8d08backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…6d36backed Under | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 55c | 36.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Under | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 26.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 25.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 48c | 22.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 53c | 22.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.