Movies · resolved market
Will 'Star Wars III' gross between $22-25m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf47f6d75d09f6f8bc20920fb8385e78119f9d39a27ca5b4fa07df8e1b1f76c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,878$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 72c | 3,423$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.29 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 30c | 1,275$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.25 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 27c | 1,156$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.95 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 69c | 1,150$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,123$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,019$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.14 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 30c | 536.83$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 44c | 491.42$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 50c | 421.29$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 8c | 350.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…498dbacked Yes | 24c | 299.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…98ccbacked Yes | 32c | 164.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 63c | 129.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…38d8backed Yes | 43c | 117.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 66c | 106.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 26c | 102$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 95.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…f23abacked Yes | 37c | 86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 56.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…8020backed No | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 64c | 51.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 32c | 47.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 79c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…0432backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Star Wars III' gross between $22-25m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Star Wars III' gross between $19-22m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Star Wars III' gross less than $19m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Star Wars III' gross more than $25m on opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.