Movies · resolved market
Will 'Star Wars III' gross more than $25m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac4ea377873437e0b5ce3c50bd38f4e7bb9ce296726415b71415cd5a8af8e263
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33b2…57b9backed Yes | 34c | 56,201$19,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,092.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…3174backed No | 66c | 56,201$37,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,092.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…3a90backed No | 50c | 31,107$15,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,553.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…dd9cbacked Yes | 50c | 31,107$15,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,553.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f54…99d8backed Yes | 45c | 25,967$11,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,281.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89da…dfcabacked No | 55c | 25,967$14,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,281.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 36c | 1,966$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 47c | 1,879$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.94 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked No | 4c | 1,701$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 54c | 1,487$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.32 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,007$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.6 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 55c | 901.72$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 64c | 828.09$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 57c | 799.98$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.99 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 74c | 654$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 61c | 605.36$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.73 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 63c | 542.66$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 71c | 502$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.96 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 66c | 475.43$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.65 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…498dbacked No | 57c | 380$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 53c | 375$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.7 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 370.01$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.89 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 57c | 350$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 67c | 324.48$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 45c | 251$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 206.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.61 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…98ccbacked Yes | 33c | 176.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed No | 35c | 154.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 80c | 125.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 65c | 119.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 50c | 107.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 32c | 82.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 80.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 55c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 64c | 74.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 52c | 70.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 66c | 65.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 71c | 65.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…4137backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e6…0b0abacked Yes | 36c | 54.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…43ffbacked Yes | 20c | 54.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…d4d7backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…c132backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…0262backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 40c | 25.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Yes | 79c | 25.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc042…c2e7backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…ccaabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Star Wars III' gross more than $25m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Star Wars III' gross between $19-22m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Star Wars III' gross between $22-25m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Star Wars III' gross less than $19m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.