Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4dae92667682177cddb7ac3c08c94c82b496a5b5ae0cf6892013b78611f5f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 1c | 4,453$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 14c | 1,523$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.08 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 24c | 1,036$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.6 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,001$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 347.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 295.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 18c | 280.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 30c | 239.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 236.75$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 215.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 28c | 214.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 205$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 198.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 28c | 191.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 190.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 20c | 184.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 183.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes | 12c | 181.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 165$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 75c | 155.6$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 14c | 150.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 136.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed No | 78c | 134.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 78c | 122.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 20c | 120.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 13c | 119.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 11c | 119.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 14c | 111.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 15c | 101.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 99.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 77c | 91.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 30c | 79.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 27c | 78.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…86b4backed No | 72c | 77.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 27c | 74.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 15c | 74.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 30c | 72.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 20c | 71.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 28c | 69.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 16c | 62.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 23c | 58.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 26c | 57.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 29c | 55.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…b34abacked Yes | 25c | 51.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes | 23c | 51.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked Yes | 27c | 47.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes | 25c | 47.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 40.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 38.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…1129backed Yes | 29c | 37.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 78c | 36.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ede…ce7ebacked Yes | 30c | 33.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 73c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.