Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15c2c81af0a89235de2d178d4b35034f41384058f1107b7b2a50a4ff7943358f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…9f32backed Yes | 1c | 1,078$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 35c | 575.21$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.32 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 33c | 411.35$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 79c | 320.81$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 285.07$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 51c | 229.54$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 76c | 222.37$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 69c | 218.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 38c | 211.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 199.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 192.52$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 34c | 189.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 176.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 72c | 173.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 54c | 172.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 169.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 31c | 168.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 64c | 164.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 163$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 77c | 162.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 161.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 64c | 155.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 61c | 152.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 137.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 134.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 70c | 126$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 111.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…7f1abacked Yes | 34c | 109.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…c4afbacked Yes | 34c | 108.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 102.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…31a1backed Yes | 34c | 98.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 31c | 95.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 25c | 95.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 54c | 92.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 23c | 92.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 92.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 66c | 91.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 90.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 62c | 88.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 45c | 86.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 82.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 81.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 31c | 74.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 40c | 72.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 70.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Yes | 29c | 66.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 62.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 26c | 61.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 64c | 58.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 72c | 58.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 34c | 56.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 60c | 54.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 50.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ed…f076backed No | 76c | 50.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 50.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 62c | 43.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 43.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 41c | 43.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 28c | 42.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 42.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…00b2backed No | 65c | 40.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 40.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 71c | 38.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 36.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 47c | 36.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 44c | 36.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 33c | 35.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…294abacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 78c | 32.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 57c | 31.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 31.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 64c | 30.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f93…4de4backed Yes | 35c | 28.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…1f64backed Yes | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 25.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 63c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.