TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,980 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes1c1,550$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.115027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4173…9f32backed Yes1c1,078$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes35c575.21$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.3243021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes33c411.35$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7514359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No79c320.81$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8824141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c285.07$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa48c…5506backed Yes51c229.54$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.992218.2%4 W · 18 L-6.7wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-57%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed No76c222.37$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7511459.6%68 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No69c218.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.539951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes38c211.35$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.312532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c199.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.492,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No76c192.52$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4767158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes34c189.69$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c176.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.426,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No72c173.28$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1324262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No54c172.33$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4321340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No77c169.97$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6561760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes31c168.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb8c…23c8backed No64c164.11$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.777762.3%48 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c163$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.535,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No77c162.76$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes39c161.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.24,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No64c155.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.935752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed No61c152.76$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8915660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes35c137.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.651,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No62c134.06$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.943,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No70c126$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9340265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c111.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x594f…7f1abacked Yes34c109.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf1…c4afbacked Yes34c108.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No63c102.1$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.882,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.53135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.59548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x360f…31a1backed Yes34c98.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6833…2011backed Yes31c95.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes25c95.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5112927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed No54c92.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7425747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes23c92.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes35c92.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.112,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No66c91.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.385054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No68c90.46$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.651,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked No62c88.86$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.788727.6%24 W · 63 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No45c86.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8365353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes38c82.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes38c81.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.135,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes31c74.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.772,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes40c72.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.152,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c70.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Yes29c66.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.26812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-67.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No64c62.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.913,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes26c61.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a87…911fbacked No64c58.34$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.875257.7%30 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No72c58.28$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2322849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes34c56.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No60c54.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9516272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.329,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c50.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.811,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ed…f076backed No76c50.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes34c50.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.151,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1944448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.592761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c49.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775c…28a9backed No62c43.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.718964%57 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes31c43.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.562,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes41c43.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8362555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes28c42.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9519022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes31c42.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1787437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b1…00b2backed No65c40.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.191877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No56c40.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes31c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x606d…89e6backed No62c39.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.25669.6%39 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked No71c38.47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes31c36.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.292,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No47c36.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0953951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes44c36.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.748356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes33c35.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.862,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ff…294abacked Yes35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No65c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed No78c32.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.219769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78c2…53adbacked No57c31.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.768737.9%33 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes37c31.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.542,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No64c30.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0154234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.838655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.73,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f93…4de4backed Yes35c28.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.834,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcef…1f64backed Yes47c25.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No66c25.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.567,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf424…6e3ebacked No71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.136266.1%41 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…c3a6backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No70c19.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7862770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c17.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No63c16.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0111652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.