Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b7e52d2fa1ca0f2b9136b393da48c04b50bfeb28d91bf3c7fcdde686c3e58e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 36c | 1,006$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.8 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…294abacked Yes | 37c | 311.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 36c | 257.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 36c | 244.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 242.62$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 229.61$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 229.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 186.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 28c | 179.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 68c | 177.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 171$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 163.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 17c | 157.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 73c | 137.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 68c | 136.23$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 126.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 124.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 27c | 111.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 39c | 110.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 28c | 92.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 29c | 91.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 58c | 90.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked No | 65c | 89.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 57c | 87.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 86.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 83.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 79.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 68c | 74.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 34c | 74.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 68.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 23c | 67.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 61.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 35c | 59.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0064…dd4dbacked Yes | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 36c | 57.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 28c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 27c | 49.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 49.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 27c | 47.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 30c | 45.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 26c | 40.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…aecabacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 34c | 35.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 65c | 35.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…6f83backed No | 63c | 34.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 31.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 64c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 29.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 69c | 25.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…cd7dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 74c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.